Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard share one of the greatest rivalries in world sport – but they are fundamentally different

This rivalry belongs in the category of duels like Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal; Muhammad Ali versus George Foreman; and Lionel Messi versus Cristiano Ronaldo. For five years, the winner of the Tour de France has been either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard. Since 2021, the Slovenian and the Dane have finished first and second, respectively. This represents unprecedented dominance in the most important cycling race of the year.

Hardly anyone doubts that the winner in three weeks will again be Pogacar or Vingegaard, and the other will finish second. The two have been too dominant recently. Primoz Roglic, two-time Olympic champion Remco Evenepoel , and former Tour winner Geraint Thomas have all won Grand Tours. But at the Tour de France, no one had a chance to seriously challenge the duo.

Before this year's Tour, both men expressed their respect for their opposite numbers, explaining that they draw energy from this rivalry. Vingegaard, 28, said the day before the Grand Départ: "He made me a better cyclist. The duel brought out the best in me." The 26-year-old Pogacar admitted that the last five years had been intense: "We have a great rivalry. I'm happy about it." With these warm words, the similarities end – the two are fundamentally different.

Two days before the start of the Tour, Pogacar is standing on the Place Charles de Gaulle in the old town of Lille. He's wearing a yellow hat at the rider presentation, probably aware that he looks silly. He's laughing, acting carefree, like a little boy excited about his birthday. Then he throws the hat into the crowd, enjoying the cheers and the spotlight. Shortly before, he said: "I'm in shape and very confident."

Vingegaard's performance was quite different. With a stony expression, he completed the parade. The Dane appeared focused, barely noticing the thousands of spectators. Vingegaard said: "Of course we have a plan to defeat Pogacar. But I won't reveal it."

The Dane is considered reserved, sometimes even shy. He says he had to get used to the hype of the Tour de France. "At first, it was overwhelming; the attention is twice as high as at other races. It took me time to learn how to deal with it."

Vingegaard rarely makes public appearances, preferring to spend time with his family. Last year, he suffered a serious crash at the Tour of the Basque Country and doubted whether he would ever return. He also had two children and wondered whether another Tour victory was worth the risk. He says: "It took almost a year to get back to my old self, longer than I expected." These are words you'll hardly ever hear from Pogacar.

Vingegaard also crashed this spring, in March, during the Paris–Nice stage race. He didn't race again for three months afterward. This wasn't due to the crash. Limiting the number of competition days was part of the plan from the start. Vingegaard trained while Pogacar enjoyed the spring Classics.

This shows that career expectations also vary. Pogacar wants to win everything there is to win and wants to create a legacy. In 2024, he achieved the difficult double of the Giro and Tour de France, becoming world champion for the first time in Zurich. This year, he has already triumphed at the Tour of Flanders and Liège–Bastogne–Liège, attempted Paris–Roubaix for the first time and finished second. Pogacar enjoys racing and draws motivation from it. And he wants to become as important as the great Eddy Merckx. In the 1960s and 1970s, Merckx won all three Grand Tours and the five Monuments at least once each.

Vingegaard, on the other hand, is focusing his entire year on the Tour de France. The rule that a professional rider needs preparatory races no longer applies to him. Last season supports this. After the serious crash in the Basque Country, Vingegaard traveled to the Tour without racing. Although he missed the overall victory, he made a strong impression considering the circumstances.

This is partly due to the fact that his team, Visma – Lease a Bike, plans the riders' form curves with scientific precision. This allows them to build racing toughness even during training. The team reveals little about its methods; former riders report that they were initially overwhelmed by the flood of data and the coaches' attention to detail.

Vingegaard says he's a bit heavier than last year, due to his increased muscle mass. And Visma – Lease a Bike's sporting director, Grischa Niermann, says: "He's stronger than ever. We'll see if that's enough to beat Pogacar."

Most experts answer this question with a no. Pogacar is the clear favorite. He cemented his position three weeks ago at the Critérium du Dauphiné. In this warm-up race, he and Vingegaard met for the first time since the last Tour; Pogacar won the race.

This Tour de France will take longer than in other years for the riders to overcome the first high mountains. Asked about the starting program, Pogacar speaks of "many opportunities" that will present themselves on the hilly stages in northern France. Vingegaard says: "We'll try to stay away from problems."

A top-class team protects him from this. Visma's squad includes current Giro winner Simon Yates, Matteo Jorgenson, one of the best climbers in the world, Sepp Kuss, another Grand Tour winner, and Wout van Aert, Vingegaard's valuable assistant. Thanks to this star-studded lineup, Visma is likely to be somewhat better than Pogacar's Team UAE. And thanks to tactical masterpieces, the team is always able to pull off surprises, most recently in Yates' Giro victory.

It's no secret that Vingegaard is more dependent on assistants than Pogacar; he feels comfortable when his tame hands are protecting him and everything is going according to plan. Pogacar, on the other hand, is an instinctive rider who also risks solo escapes and attacks at unusual times.

Nevertheless, Vingegaard is unfairly labeled a boring rider. In the past, he caused a sensation with attacks in the high mountains, securing two Tour victories there. He attacked Pogacar on Mont Ventoux and the Col de la Loze, among other places, and left his rival behind. This fuels hopes of a chance for Vingegaard to win this Tour.

Because these two mountains are on the program again this year – in the last week, when the Tour is decided.