Will inflation forecast increase again?

According to Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, the developments taking place within the country are not the only reason for what is happening. Speaking on TGRT News during the week, Minister Şimşek said, "There have been outflows from many countries, some countries' CDSs have increased." He stated that the outflows seen on the carry trade side were also affected by external developments.

The effects of the events on inflation are being followed carefully. Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said in his presentation to the Parliament that the main trend of inflation is increasing. He said that the indicators imply that annualized inflation is slightly above 30 percent.

The Central Bank will hold its Second Inflation Report Meeting of the year on May 22. In the first meeting held on February 7, the year-end inflation estimate was increased from 21 percent to 24 percent. (The upper band of the inflation estimate is 29 percent) Considering the current conditions, an increase may be made at this meeting as well. Market estimates are now above 30 percent.

Inflation forecasts of foreign institutions for the end of 2025:

S&P 33.0%

Fitch Ratings 34.3%

JPMorgan 30.5%

There are some factors that reduce the probability of inflation forecasts coming true:

*Rise in exchange rates (Euro/TL increased by 19 percent this year)

*Possible increase in food prices due to agricultural frost.

*Despite high interest rates, the use of loans and credit cards is increasing.

*Price increases before the tourist season