Mümtaz'er Türköne wrote: Knowing what will happen

"We know what we will become," says the great philosopher: "We will all die." He adds: "The real question is what we are." It's always the past that's being discussed; no one cares about the possibilities the future holds before us. Different pasts swirl around in everyone's mind, and the future is unique and unknowable.

Except for what those who dare to foresee say.

On the past-future axis, immersed in the present moment, try to break free from the ties of the past and focus on the future. The simplest truth about what will happen: People will die. They will become a memory, a trace in our minds, mere images and photographs. When their power fades, they will be subject to new interpretations and emerging information, and their biographies will be rewritten over and over again. Storms will erupt over the past, conflicts will erupt; but personal accounts and quarrels will have no value or meaning. The great nation will shake the roads with its revolutionary march through history, the state will continue its existence by relying on its own accumulated knowledge, and this country's supreme interests, above all, will continue their journey of destiny in the hands of new faces and new actors.

The past will only take its place on the stage like a gun hanging on the wall, as ammunition or material for the fights of the moment.

The most fundamental interpretation is based on classifications based not on the words spoken, but on the speaker. Those who follow this crude and simplistic method immediately fall into a trap: They stray from the main topic under discussion and focus on the speaker's individuality, becoming lost in polemics that the old-timers called "personalities." This is the sleight of hand of those who lack the capacity to dissect and analyze the real issue, or to establish cause-and-effect relationships. Speakers are as easily stoned as fruit trees. Those who operate on emotions like sympathy and antipathy use flesh-and-blood individuals as guides or enemies to create a simple roadmap for difficult issues. Without the slightest understanding of the subject matter being debated, they arrogantly parade around claiming to be enlightened by the truth.

Ruşen Çakır and I disagree on many issues, but we can channel these differences into a harmonious dialogue that enriches our analysis. We both focus on causal relationships, on the details that reveal the whole, and on a theoretical background, however implicit, to make predictions.

The purpose of political analysis is prediction. Prediction is not fortune-telling. Only half of political events are the result of human will and effort. The rest is a matter of luck. You must make room for the individual's role in history. Here's a simple example you can attribute to luck: If Özal hadn't died suddenly in 1993, could the events of the last 30 years have unfolded through a chain reaction?

Because foresight itself has become one of the factors that creates and therefore changes the future, it generally doesn't happen as planned. Foresight illuminates your path. It provides you with a fixed reference point. Like politics itself, foresight relies half on judgment and half on intuition. Successful politicians stand out for their foresight, based on instinctive intuition. This is called perspicacity.

Türkiye has two main agendas that are subject to political competition and debate: the Peace Process and the CHP's purge through the judiciary. When it comes to making predictions and engaging in polemics instead, you have to focus on these two.

The Peace Process is proceeding on the waters of dynamics that exceed the combined will of local political actors. It has a lure and a necessity that will transcend will and subjugate others. We look to a future of prosperity and security, a window of opportunity for Türkiye and all Kurds, where both sides stand to gain ten-to-one. To turn our backs on this opportunity means rushing headlong into disaster.

It's possible to make definitive predictions about the Peace Process because it surpasses the will of all the game-changers, including Erdoğan. Kurds will embark on a new journey through history, united in their destiny with Turkey. Turkey will pave a solid path for this journey, built upon the foundations of honor and equal citizenship. Otherwise, we will perish.

All that's needed is time. If Nezahat Teke, a member of the Saturday Mothers, had been able to speak Kurdish in the Parliamentary Committee , that time would have been accelerated. Because our future depends on Kurds being able to use their native language freely in public settings.

Individuals also come to the fore here. Is it possible to control the future by repeatedly labeling Abdullah Öcalan "baby killer" and "terrorist leader"? The judgment, often mistaken for truth because it's repeated, needs to be reexamined: Is Öcalan a powerful figure in Kurdish politics or not? Is he a "Founding Leader" or not? Can the Peace Process proceed without him, or not?

The CHP's elimination through judicial means is more vulnerable to the whims of fate because it's the subject of power competition and a project of domestic actors. The Peace Process itself is what brought it to power and anchored it in a secure position.

As Turkey teeters between the Peace Process and the operation to eliminate the CHP, the solid foundation of politics is once again anchored in the Peace Process as a fixed point. Since there can be no Solution without law and democracy, eliminating the CHP through illegitimate methods is also impossible. Can an analysis be conducted that places the CHP's fate outside this robust equation? Can a prediction be made?

Can the Peace Process proceed while the judicial stick is being brought down on the CHP?

Bahçeli, a partner in the People's Alliance, has repeatedly reiterated that this will not work. All of the statements that criticize the CHP but defend the rule of law, and therefore the CHP's rights, are the result of the inconsistency between the Peace Process and the CHP's liquidation.

Don't be fooled by the fact that the second-placed side prevails in the seesaw between the Peace Process and the CHP purge. Politics is driven by ambition. The CHP purge operation constantly works against the government; since reversing the path chosen is incompatible with political arrogance, the insistence on error persists. It also exposes those of us who make predictions based on logic, reason, reasons, and the interests of the parties.

Making political predictions isn't a cheap method like classifying people as right or wrong, or attempting to prioritize polemics over real agendas. Above all, it requires courage and talent, matured through experience.

Polemics, that is, dealing with individuals, are not my forte. I will continue to make predictions.