The importance of COP30 in Brazil

The world is failing to meet the necessary efforts to curb climate change, and opportunities to stay below the key thresholds of 1.5°C or even 2°C are being missed. Indeed, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, rising from 49 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) to 53 gigatons in 2023.

While the annual United Nations climate summits, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP), have created important frameworks for action, they have not advanced quickly or broadly enough. The transition to a low-carbon economy has proven difficult due to high economic costs and political challenges.

In this context, the upcoming COP30 meeting in November, to be held in Belém, in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, could mark a turning point.

Brazil is uniquely positioned to help change the way tropical forests are treated as part of the global climate effort: not just as victims of deforestation and carbon emissions, but as vital assets in the fight against climate change. The Amazon, which represents half of the world's rainforests, plays a critical role in absorbing carbon dioxide, regulating weather patterns, and preserving global biodiversity. Its health is not just a regional concern, but a global priority.

To achieve an effective climate solution, two important actions are essential. First, the world must drastically reduce new emissions and remain on track toward net-zero emissions by 2050. Unfortunately, these emissions continue to rise. Second, even if emissions are reduced to near-zero, we will still need to remove the enormous amounts of carbon already in the atmosphere.

With more than 40,000 participants from nearly 200 countries expected to attend COP30, there's no shortage of good ideas. However, one proposal is poised to take full advantage of the event's unique location, as well as the support of the host government. Belém is a unique opportunity to raise global attention on restoring tropical forests like the Amazon, whether by planting trees or allowing nature to regenerate.

This proposal highlights an immediate, cost-effective, and politically viable way to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Unlike carbon capture technologies, which are expensive and have little evidence of success, forest regeneration is affordable, scalable, and ready to deploy. Furthermore, focusing on forest restoration also brings other benefits: it protects biodiversity, conserves water, and supports healthy ecosystem services. The Amazon rainforest hosts a carbon reservoir comparable to the total historical emissions of the United States.

We need a new approach, one that recognizes the two-way relationship between forests and climate. Tropical forests can absorb enormous amounts of carbon if restored, and climate policies can help direct money and resources to protect and grow these forests.

To harness the climate potential of tropical forests, two issues must be addressed simultaneously: halting deforestation and restoring degraded lands.

First, it is urgent to halt deforestation. Although there has been progress in agricultural productivity, tropical forest loss remains high. These ecosystems, sometimes ignored in forest financing mechanisms, are even more delicate than some observers think. If we don't achieve near-zero deforestation by 2030, we risk losing one of the planet's most important carbon sinks.

Forests help stabilize the climate, not only by sequestering carbon, but also by regulating rainfall, preventing soil erosion, and supporting agriculture. Preserving them also helps prevent the spread of zoonotic diseases, many of which originate in disturbed wildlife habitats. Their destruction accelerates biodiversity loss and makes it difficult for local communities to maintain their traditional ways of life. Therefore, it is vital to protect high-integrity forests that currently face low deforestation pressure.

Second, forest restoration is an effective way to remove carbon from the air. In Brazil alone, excessive deforestation has left an area the size of Texas vacant and underutilized. These lands offer a tremendous opportunity to restore forest cover, boost biodiversity, and recover crucial ecosystem services. Despite the financial and institutional barriers that have slowed progress, restoration can be achieved by planting native species, encouraging natural regrowth, and integrating reforestation with sustainable livelihoods for local populations.

A smart forest strategy must address both fronts: protection and restoration. The right balance will vary among tropical countries, depending on local conditions and institutions.

Brazil and other tropical countries have tried policies to reduce deforestation, but political instability has reversed these gains over time. For forest-focused solutions to be successful, they must be designed to withstand political change.

That's what makes COP30 so important. It's an opportunity to move from scattered pilot programs to a unified global framework that treats forests as essential infrastructure for climate stability. With the world's eyes on Belém, there's an opportunity to send a clear signal about tropical forests: they are not just a concern for environmentalists, but a fundamental element of climate security and global prosperity.

To support this shift, we need a financial model designed for the magnitude of the opportunity and the complexity of the challenge. One promising idea is a framework with two complementary payment systems: one to reward regions that grow new forests and remove carbon, and another to reward the protection of existing forests.

The first model relies on carbon offset mechanisms, either through regulated carbon markets or other frameworks. In this system, countries, high-emitting sectors, or large companies must offset their greenhouse gas emissions as part of their transition to carbon neutrality. Under this approach, these actors would purchase forest-based carbon offsets, paying tropical regions based on their net carbon balance— that is, the difference between the carbon sequestered through forest restoration and the carbon released through deforestation.

The payments would go to regional funds that support a range of forest-related activities: law enforcement, land rights, Indigenous territories, and incentives for landowners who enable forest regeneration.

In the Brazilian Amazon, where much of the deforestation is due to low-income cattle grazing, modest carbon payments could be transformative. This region could transform from a major carbon emitter to a major carbon sink, removing up to 18 gigatons of carbon over 30 years. Most of this would be achieved by allowing already degraded lands to regrow naturally.

Carbon payments create powerful incentives for farmers to shift from low-productivity livestock farming to forest restoration , while also motivating governments to strengthen deforestation controls and promote ecosystem recovery on public lands.

The second model, based on the proposed Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), would offer annual payments to countries for each hectare of forest preserved. The proposal suggests $4 per hectare per year, with heavy penalties for any deforestation—a system that, in practice, pays countries to keep forests standing . Although it is not linked to carbon credits, the logic is simple: reward responsible management and penalize forest loss. This approach treats forests as infrastructure, worthy of funding for their maintenance, just like roads or electricity grids.

Together, these mechanisms form a comprehensive strategy. One supports active carbon removal, the other ensures long-term forest conservation. If implemented together, they could transform tropical forests from a peripheral concern into the key to climate policy. Forests would no longer be simply a backdrop for climate action: they would become the main stage.

To be successful, this system requires massive financing and global coordination. Current climate finance tools are not up to the task. A key step is to establish a unified global price for carbon. A common price would allow countries to work together and reduce the overall cost of climate action. Coordinated pricing would also signal to investors and businesses that nature-based solutions are a reliable and essential part of the future economy.

Accurate and affordable forest carbon monitoring is also essential. Fortunately, satellite technology and data analysis make this possible. A global system for verifying carbon changes would build confidence in the results and improve transparency.

Furthermore, it is important that the system be simple. Instead of funding individual projects, payments would be allocated to entire regions or countries based on results, giving local governments the freedom to use the funds as needed and holding them accountable for results. This approach avoids bureaucracy and respects national sovereignty. Countries would be rewarded for delivering measurable environmental benefits, regardless of the policy tools they choose to use.

COP30 is not just another summit. It's an opportunity to rethink how we think about forests as part of the climate strategy. The old view, according to which forests are mere victims or supporting actors, is no longer valid. Tropical forests can be fundamental to solving the climate crisis. Their protection and restoration can also bring economic benefits, especially as rural economies evolve and digital tools connect even remote areas to global markets.

With the right support, carbon revenues can help build infrastructure and services in emerging cities, linking environmental protection with economic growth. Investing in nature can go hand in hand with social development. The way forward is not about choosing between the environment and prosperity, but about designing solutions that guarantee both.

The path is clear. The question now is whether COP30 can deliver the necessary actions. The future of tropical forests, and the global climate system, may depend on it.

BETO VERÍSSIMO (*) AND JULIANO J. ASSUNÇÃO (**)

(*) Senior researcher and co-founder of the Amazon Institute of People and Environment (Imazon).

(**) Associate professor of economics at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, executive director of the Climate Policy Initiative and coordinator, together with Beto Veríssimo, of the Amazonia 2030 initiative. This article has been edited for space reasons.