According to the Central Bank, inflation in May will be above 3% and will close the year at 31.8%.

Less than a week before the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) releases its April inflation rate, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) published its Market Expectations Survey (REM) and estimated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 3.2 % in the fourth month of the year. INDEC will release its April inflation figures next Wednesday, May 14.

The Central Bank's REM (Revolutionary Monthly Forecast) includes studies from 41 consulting firms, banks, and research centers in Spain and abroad. According to the report, April inflation is expected to reach 3.2%, indicating a decline of one percentage point compared to the previous month's estimate. It is expected to decline significantly in subsequent months, closing the year with annual inflation of 31.8 %.

We are publishing the April 2025 Market Expectations Survey, with the main macroeconomic forecasts for the evolution of selected variables. More information: https://t.co/3FhHTVe7Tb #REMBCRA pic.twitter.com/rJXTmZLCAO

— BCRA (@BancoCentral_AR) May 8, 2025

"In the coming months, a downward trend in monthly inflation is expected, both for the overall CPI and for the core component," the report indicated. According to the experts consulted, inflation in May would fall to 2.8 %; in June it would reach 2.2 %; in July it would reach 2 %, and in August the barrier would be broken and inflation would fall to 1.8%. In September, there would be a slight increase, bringing inflation back to 2% ; it would fall again to 1.8% in October.

Estimates for the coming months were revised upward after inflation jumped in March, reaching 3.7%, temporarily halting the disinflationary process. In this regard, the REM 's projection of 31.8% represents an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to the April estimate. For comparison, in January, the REM forecast annual inflation of 23.2% for 2025.

In addition to the CPI, the REM estimated exchange rate fluctuations for the coming months. The consultants projected the dollar would close May at $ 1.171 , June at $ 1.179 , and July at $ 1.199 . Like the CPI, exchange rate projections have increased; in the previous measurement, the estimate for June was $1.102.