Key Senate contests take shape ahead of 2026 midterm elections

Washington — Democrats will be trying to take control of the Senate in the midterm elections next year, eyeing a handful of competitive races and a couple of long-shot bids.

Over a third of the Senate's seats are up for election in 2026 — Democrats will be defending 13 seats, while Republicans will be trying to hold onto 24. But the map offers few opportunities for Democrats to flip seats, with many of the Republicans seeking reelection hailing from states that President Trump comfortably won in 2024. Meanwhile, the retirement of three Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2026 has created possible openings for the GOP.

With 53 Republicans in the upper chamber, Democrats would need to defend seats in some competitive states, while flipping four seats in order to secure a majority.

The key races likely to determine who controls the Senate after 2026 are beginning to take shape, with contentious primary challenges in some states and newcomers to watch in a handful of open seats in the upper chamber.

North Carolina is expected to hold the most expensive contest, while Texas is seeing a bitter GOP primary fight that Democrats hope will play to their advantage.

Here's what to know about the state of play in the key 2026 Senate races:

North Carolina was already expected to be competitive in 2026, even before GOP Sen. Thom Tillis announced in June he wouldn't seek reelection. The open seat in the Tar Heel State has emerged as a key prize as Democrats look to make gains in the Senate.

President Trump won the state by more than three points in 2024, and North Carolina has historically voted for Republicans in every presidential race — with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008 — which also marked the last time the state sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate seat in 2026, with their dream recruit, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper.

Cooper, who announced his Senate bid in July, is a two-term governor and the longest-serving state attorney general in North Carolina's history.

The contest heated up days after Cooper entered the race, when Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley announced a bid for the open seat, teeing up what's expected to be among the most expensive races of the cycle. Whatley has never run for office but played a key role in Mr. Trump's reelection effort. He's leaning on his conservative acumen and an endorsement from the president, as well as the connections he's forged as RNC chair.

With the race's implications for control of the Senate, along with the presence of two well-connected candidates with fundraising chops, advertising spending is likely to surge.

Widely viewed as the most vulnerable Democrat this election cycle, Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term in the Senate after he eked out a win in the 2020 elections when the Georgia race went to a runoff.

Ossoff's narrow victory secured a Democratic majority in the Senate, at the same time Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Georgia in a presidential election since 1992. But Georgia flipped again in 2024, supporting Mr. Trump, making Ossoff the only incumbent Democrat this cycle defending a seat the president won in the last election.

With a number of Republicans already jockeying to take on Ossoff, the GOP primary threatens to be a bruising one for the party. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, along with former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley have all entered the race. And though Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp opted not to launch a bid, Dooley is widely seen as his pick. Meanwhile, the president, who has publicly clashed with Kemp in recent years, has yet to endorse a candidate.

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced in March that she won't seek reelection, opening up what could be a competitive race in the Granite State.

Though Republicans have controlled the governor's mansion since 2017, a Republican hasn't carried New Hampshire in a presidential election since 2000, and the state last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2010. Still, Republicans have put up a number of formidable challenges in the state in recent years, and the GOP is aiming to capitalize on the open seat this cycle.

On the Republican side, former Sen. Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts from 2010 to 2013, launched a bid to represent New Hampshire in the Senate after falling short against Shaheen in 2014. State Sen. Dan Innis, who launched two unsuccessful House bids, is also running. Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu passed on a bid earlier this year, despite having the president's support.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who's represented New Hampshire in the House since 2019, announced a bid for Shaheen's seat in April and quickly earned her endorsement. In early August, Karishma Manzur, a medical scientist, became the first Democrat to challenge Pappas in the primary.

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters' surprise announcement in January that he wouldn't seek reelection in 2026 opened up a key seat in the battleground state, which has flipped in the presidential races between President Trump in 2016 to former President Joe Biden in 2020 and back to Mr. Trump in 2024.

Without the advantage traditionally provided by an incumbent, Democrats are drawing from a wide talent pool, with a crowded primary already underway. Though Biden administration Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg considered entering the race, he ultimately passed on a bid earlier this year. Among the Democrats who have entered the race so far are Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Michigan health official Abdul El-Sayed. In Michigan, which has the largest concentration of Arabs in the U.S., Israel's war in Gaza is expected to become a key issue in the primary.

On the GOP side, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers also launched a bid earlier this year, after falling short in his race against Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year. Mr. Trump endorsed the Army veteran last month, saying that from "the U.S. Army to Congress, Mike has served our Nation with distinction, and will bring that same Fighting Spirit to the U.S. Senate."

Republican Sen. Susan Collins is up for reelection in 2026. First elected to the Senate in 1996, the five-term senator is among the most independent-minded in the GOP caucus, often breaking with her party. She's survived a handful of challenges from Democrats in previous races, but it remains to be seen whether the 72-year-old can fend off a Democratic challenge in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024 by almost seven points.

Democrats have been trying to recruit Gov. Janet Mills, a 77-year-old two-term governor, in an attempt to unseat Collins. The entrance of a political newcomer in Democrat Graham Platner, a veteran and oyster farmer who has billed himself as an anti-establishment candidate, could complicate things for the party.

Although the Texas Senate race isn't expected to be as competitive in the general election, the Republican primary has been heating up in recent months as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton challenges Sen. John Cornyn for his long-held seat in the upper chamber.

Cornyn, 73, has been in the Senate since 2002 and served as the No. 2 Republican from 2013 to 2019. Paxton, a 62-year-old staunch ally of the president, has criticized Cornyn for questioning whether Mr. Trump could win a general election in 2024. And although Cornyn has worked to mend the relationship with Mr. Trump, becoming a vocal supporter of the president's second term agenda, the dynamic has made for a messy primary fight so far — and added to speculation about his eventual endorsement. Asked this week about an endorsement in the race, Mr. Trump remained undecided, telling reporters, "I'll make up my mind, I like them both."

Meanwhile, the Texas attorney general, who was reelected to a third term as the state's top prosecutor in 2022, has faced a series of controversies in recent years, with an impeachment and criminal securities fraud charges that were later dismissed. In July, his wife announced that she had filed for divorce on "biblical grounds."

On the Democratic side, former Rep. Colin Allred is pursuing another Senate bid after falling short against Sen. Ted Cruz by more than eight points last year. Allred is expected to face another uphill battle in 2026, but Democrats see his chances as improving, should the more conservative Paxton win the primary.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown's announcement this month that he is launching a comeback bid to once again represent Ohio in the Senate marked a major recruiting victory for Democrats, though the Ohio race is still expected to be a tough battle for the party.

Brown lost his 2024 bid for a fourth term in the upper chamber against GOP challenger Sen. Bernie Moreno in a cycle that saw the president win in the state by more than 10 percentage points. Brown lost to Moreno by less than four points. And with the party that controls the White House typically losing ground in midterm elections, Democrats see a chance to flip the seat, forcing Republicans to spend heavily in the state in the process.

In 2026, Brown will face off against Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican who previously served as Ohio's lieutenant governor and was appointed in January to fill Ohio's other Senate seat, which Vice President JD Vance vacated.

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced in February that she wouldn't seek reelection in 2026, creating an open Senate seat in Minnesota for the first time since 2008.

Though the North Star State hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002 and the GOP hasn't carried the state in a presidential election since the 1970s, the Republicans saw the state shift toward their direction in 2024, and they aim to capitalize on that in the race for the open seat in 2026.

Among Democrats, leading candidates Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig are facing off. And a dominant candidate has yet to materialize in the crowded GOP field, which includes former NBA player Royce White, who fell short in his 2024 bid against Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Adam Schwarze, a retired NAVY Seal, also launched a bid for the open seat earlier this year.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is up for reelection in Iowa in 2026, but the two-term senator has yet to announce whether she plans to run again.

The Hawkeye State hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and a Democrat would face steep chances in a state Mr. Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024. But Democrats are hopeful, as the Iowa Republican has faced scrutiny in recent months.

Ernst, a 55-year-old who was elected to the Senate in 2014, has been criticized by Democrats over comments she made about Medicaid cuts, and she was hammered by the GOP base over her initial reluctance to support Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's confirmation.

The Democratic field is crowded, with state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls and Nathan Sage, executive director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce, vying for the nomination. State Rep. J.D. Scholten had also launched a campaign, but he bowed out earlier this month and endorsed Turek as Democrats' best chance to defeat Ernst.

In July, independent Dan Osborn announced another bid to represent Nebraska in the Senate, after falling short against Sen. Deb Fischer, the Republican incumbent, by seven points in 2024.

After the unexpectedly competitive race last year where he significantly outperformed Harris, the union leader is challenging GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts in 2026. But Republicans are expected to be better prepared for the challenge in the deep red state this time around.

Ricketts, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, was appointed to the Senate in 2023, upon former Sen. Ben Sasse's retirement, and handily won his bid in a special election last year to serve out the remaining two years of Sasse's term.