It concerns everyone who has money in the bank and will take out a loan! When will interest rates fall?

Milliyet.com.tr/ÖZEL The policy rate was raised to 46% when the Central Bank accelerated its monetary tightening steps at the end of March. The bank did not make any changes to the interest rates at its meeting on June 19.

MONTHLY INFLATION SURPRISE!

With the steps taken, significant decreases in consumer prices began to be observed. June inflation figures were announced recently. Monthly inflation came in well below expectations at 1.37%. Annual inflation fell to 35.05%.

According to the Central Bank Market Participants Survey, the June inflation rate was expected to be 1.61%, while according to the Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Expectations Survey, June inflation was expected to be 2.19%. According to the AA Finance Inflation Expectations Survey, the CPI was expected to be 1.53%. Monthly inflation in June was below all expectations.

INTEREST RATE REDUCED PREDICTION FROM A GIANT US BANK

The US giant bank Morgan Stanley expects the CBRT to cut interest rates starting in July. The bank, which predicted a 250 basis point cut in July, estimated that interest rates would fall to 36% by the end of the year.

WHAT IS THE LATEST SITUATION IN DEPOSIT, VEHICLE, HOUSING AND CONSUMER LOANS?

The next meeting of the Central Bank will be on July 24. While a few points drop in deposit interest rates in banks has been particularly noticeable recently , an average deposit interest of around 50% is currently being given.

While housing loan interest rates in banks are above 3%, a private bank has lowered interest rates from 2.95% to 2.98%. However, current levels are still quite high.

While interest rates for vehicle loans vary between 3.45% and 4.00%, rates for consumer loans vary between 3.19% and 4.00%.

'INTEREST RATES SHOULD FALL TO 41%'

So will the Central Bank cut interest rates on July 24? In the event of a possible interest rate cut , how much of a decline would there be in deposit interest, vehicle, consumer loan and housing loan interests? Evaluating all the curiosities on the subject to milliyet.com.tr, 3rd Eye Consultancy Founder Hikmet Baydar made the following statements: “The Central Bank will most likely cut interest rates on July 24. The interest rate cut talked about in the market is 250 basis points . The interest rate cut will most likely be made. I think this figure will be a minimum of 250 basis points. A cut of 400-500, or even up to 600 basis points, may be made.

The amount of the interest rate cut will show us how comfortable the Central Bank is in accumulating reserves. In short, interest rates need to be reduced to 41%.

'CREDIT CARD USE RELAXED'

I have seen that banks are working on credit card limits recently. It seems that credit card usage has been relaxed. There were restrictions by the Central Bank and BDDK. Therefore, credit card usage was limited in order to reduce domestic consumption. The real problem is that while credit card usage was limited, commercial companies were also limited in terms of card usage, and these companies were forced to reduce their turnover when they could not use these cards that they used as working capital. This has a big effect on the shrinkage of the market.

'THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN DEPOSIT INTERESTS'

In the upcoming period, there will be a decline in deposit rates as the funding cost will decrease with the interest rate cuts of the Central Bank. We are talking about the interest rate cuts of the CBRT reaching 250-500 basis points. The decrease in funding costs will be reflected in deposit rates. There will be a significant decline in deposit rates.

If the market is left relaxed in terms of liquidity and banks can be competitive in providing loans, we can see that loan interest rates will also fall rapidly. Here, the limits and targets of banks are more effective. If the Central Bank and BDDK leave banks relaxed in this regard, loan interest rates can be given at more competitive rates.

'LOAN INTERESTS WILL NOT FALL AS HARD AS DEPOSIT INTERESTS'

The rates in loan interest rates are currently lower than the current funding rates. In other words, a loan interest rate of around 3% corresponds to 36% per year. Funding rates are much higher. Will there be a decrease in loan interest rates? Yes, but the decrease in loan interest rates may not be as sharp as in deposit interest rates. I expect softer, downward loan rates.

"Even if there is a 4 point decrease in deposit rates compared to the decrease in funding rates, this will not be directly reflected in loan rates. Even if it is half of this, I think it would be quite good."