Vox doesn't play, but it wins

The two major parties in Spain have not given each other any respite, not even during the summer. The two political episodes this August—the fires and the distribution of migrant minors—have served as an opportunity for the PSOE and the PP to try to gain an advantage over their rivals, although neither has likely succeeded.

The fires and the controversy over migrant minors have highlighted the growing confusion between the responsibilities attributable to the autonomous regions and those of the central government. The distribution of powers has always been a source of institutional conflict. However, these were previously more frequent between the central government and the so-called "nationalities," while now they are more a response to the sleepless and ruthless electoral battle between the PP and the PSOE.

Vox leaders didn't have to make any effort this summer; the PP and PSOE did the work for them.

That Catalonia or the Basque Country would maintain a constant struggle with the central government to maintain the greatest possible degree of sovereignty was logical for two communities with a strong nationalist component. But there is an increasing exercise of opposition by the autonomous regions toward the government and vice versa, with particularly bitter cases such as that of the Community of Madrid, where the political clash shifts from the regional assembly to the duel between Pedro Sánchez and Isabel Díaz Ayuso.

The delimitation of powers has been forged based on rulings by the Constitutional Court. But it is clear that, no matter how the areas of responsibility of one administration or another are determined, it will be difficult for the system to function effectively without a minimum of institutional loyalty. When the regions that have suffered serious fires and the central government point the finger at each other as incapable, all they achieve is to swell the ranks of detractors of the autonomous model.

If regional governments fail to assist those affected when they need it most, many will conclude by calling for greater centralization, not so much because it's more effective, but because they ultimately prefer a simple "command and command." Or because at least we'll know who to blame.

Likewise, the constant calls for military intervention also contribute to sending a message of political incapacity to citizens, as occurred when Carlos Mazón chose a former military officer to oversee reconstruction after the disaster.

Something similar is happening with the conflict over the distribution of migrant minors . When autonomous communities, regardless of their political leanings, engage in bitter arguments to shrug off the responsibility of hosting these children and adolescents, when they publicly haggle over the number of places as if discussing something inappropriate, they are, to put it mildly, fueling the premise that immigration only leads to crime and unnecessary expense.

The result of both practices is clear, and the message conveyed is also clear: if the autonomous regions can't put out fires, it's better to eliminate them. If politicians have to call in the army, why do we need them? If immigrants are merely a source of problems and can be treated as burdens rather than people, it's more practical to keep them out. Right now, Vox most clearly represents all of these positions, although other similar parties may emerge that seek to take advantage of this political climate.

Therefore, it's surprising that the PP (People's Party) disregards its own current power, in the hands of the autonomous regions, by relegating them to second-class administrations with a narrative that benefits the far right. In fact, Vox leaders have barely had to make an effort this summer, especially when the fires were in the news. They just had to let the Socialists and Popular Party members do their thing. But if the PSOE thinks they can capitalize on this circumstance, they should bear in mind that such narratives also have an impact on left-wing voters. They may not make the jump to a party like Vox, but they may tire of mobilizing against it and decide to stay home on election day.

Poor service Illa, Rodalies and Minister Puente

If there's one thing that worries Salvador Illa's government, it's the poor performance of Rodalies. Not only because investments haven't improved the service, and the government believes there's room for improvement, but also because of the resistance within Oscar Puente's ministry to the transfer process. The president of the Generalitat will meet on Tuesday with representatives of Renfe and Adif, a clear reflection of discontent with the evolution of the service and the negotiations. The government doesn't see sufficient involvement with Catalonia on the part of the heads of those two organizations. Illa and Puente are two people Pedro Sánchez trusts, but the relationship between the two could be considered rather cold.

The beginning of the political year Rumors of a change of government

The political climate was so tense at the beginning of the summer that rumors began to swirl about a change of government by Pedro Sánchez in an attempt to regain the initiative. It's a move that prime ministers usually keep secret until the last minute, although at this new start, the signals from the Moncloa don't seem to point in that direction. This isn't even the case for María Jesús Montero, who combines her work as vice president for the economy and as a candidate for the Andalusian regional government, with the resulting contradictions when it comes to regional financing . Sánchez's moves will be determined above all by the results of the elections in Castilla y León and Andalusia.