Health spending in Latin America will triple by 2050; Colombia is among the countries with the greatest growth.

A technical report prepared by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) warns that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries will face a dramatic increase in health spending in the coming decades.

According to the document, titled 'Future Health Spending in Latin America and the Caribbean: Health Expenditure Projections & Scenario Analysis' , current per capita health spending will increase by 2.75 times in Latin America and 4.7 times in the Caribbean between 2018/2019 and 2050.

The phenomenon, according to the researchers, is the result of a "perfect storm" driven by three key factors: the accelerated aging of the population, the spread of chronic non-communicable diseases, and technological innovation in the health sector. "Our results indicate that the main drivers of growth in health spending are economic growth and technology," the report emphasizes. These factors are also compounded, albeit to a lesser extent, by population growth and changes in the prevalence of diseases by age.

The countries that will see the greatest increase in their per capita spending are Panama (373%), Peru (344%), Chile (222%) and Colombia (187%), while in the Caribbean the most pronounced growth is projected for the Dominican Republic (447%) and Trinidad and Tobago (257%).

The researchers—Krishna D. Rao, Andrés Vecino Ortiz, Tim Roberton, Angélica López Hernández, and Caitlin Noonan—developed an economic model based on data from seven index countries (including Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil), which was then extrapolated to the rest of the region. The methodology considered factors such as demographic aging, disease burden, real GDP growth, and the introduction of new medical technologies.

By age group, spending growth will be most pronounced among older adults. In Latin America, median annual growth rates in health spending will reach more than 6% for people aged 85 and over, while for those under 25, they will not exceed 2% annually. "These trends indicate that growth will be driven by population aging and increased per capita spending among these age groups," the report states.

By disease type, the most likely drivers of spending will be cancer, circulatory system diseases, and genitourinary system diseases, while spending on infectious and maternal-neonatal diseases will grow at a much slower pace.

The report concludes that, without cost-containment measures, the growth in health spending could compromise the fiscal sustainability of health systems in the region. "Most countries are not on track to achieve a Universal Health Coverage (UHC) index of 90 by 2030," the authors warn, recommending strengthening primary care, the use of cost-effective technologies, and the establishment of health technology assessment agencies as key strategies to address the challenge.

Environment and Health Journalist