Mexican stock markets remain resilient; they rise more than 15% in the first half of the year.

The performance of Mexican stock markets during the first half of 2025 is resilient, recording increases of over 15%, during a period characterized by high global uncertainty.

Stock markets closed the final session of June with mixed results. The leading S&P/BMV IPC index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) rose 0.10% to 57,450.88 points. The FTSE-BIVA index of the Institutional Stock Exchange (Biva) fell 0.12% to 1,159.15 points.

In June, the S&P/BMV IPC lost 0.68% and the FTSE-BIVA also fell 0.87%.

So far in 2025, the indicators have increased by 16.07% for the S&P/BMV IPC and 15.41% for the FTSE-BIVA.

Banorte experts stated in a study that the second quarter of 2025 ended marked by high global uncertainty. The main debate centered on the potential impact of changes in U.S. trade policy.

"This includes the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on certain goods such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum. Overall, these tensions have led to cuts in growth outlooks by governments, multilateral organizations, and analysts," they emphasized.

Although this dominated the headlines, there were other important issues, including the difficulties in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and the growing hostilities between Israel and Iran.

For their part, analysts at Monex Casa de Bolsa considered that in the sixth month of the year, the S&P/BMV IPC showed a slight decline of 0.68%, falling from its all-time high.

"In the coming weeks, it will be important to assess growth expectations for the upcoming corporate reporting season, which currently appear resilient. Additionally, it will be important to maintain focus on economic performance, both locally and internationally, and its potential impact on issuers," the analysts predict.

Wall Street underperforms

Wall Street's three major indexes rose around 5% in the first six months of the year; however, the rebound in indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite has seen them reach new record highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes 30 stocks, gained 0.63% to 43,094.77 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.52% to 6,204.94 points, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.48% to 20,369.73 points.

In June, the Nasdaq climbed 6.57%, followed by the S&P 500 with 4.96% and the Dow Jones with 4.32%. In 2025, the benchmark's gains were limited: the Dow Jones rose 3.64%, while the S&P 500 advanced 5.49% and the Nasdaq Composite improved 5.48%.

"During June, the markets showed optimism, driven by the resilience of the labor market reflected in the May employment report, signs of continuity and reactivation of projects related to artificial intelligence, as well as announcements of possible agreements between the United States and China," said analysts at Actinver Casa de Bolsa in a statement.

They asserted that these factors countered the Federal Reserve's increasingly cautious tone regarding its upcoming interest rate moves and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

"In short, the coming quarters will be marked by a struggle between corporate optimism and geopolitical reality. The key will be selectivity, sector rotation, and a careful reading of political and macroeconomic catalysts," explained Felipe Mendoza, Financial Markets Analyst at the brokerage ATFX LATAM.