Brazil's Southeast would be most impacted by Trump's tariffs

The 50% tariff on Brazil announced by Donald Trump should primarily impact the southeast of the country. The three largest exporters to the United States are, respectively, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais, according to a survey by Amcham Brasil, the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil, and the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Commerce, Mdic.

In 2024, São Paulo exported nearly $2.445 billion, representing 33.6% of the total. Next came Rio de Janeiro, with $1.33 billion, and Minas Gerais, with $827 million. In total, the southeastern states accounted for 71% of exports last year.

This year, São Paulo's record is repeated: the state exported $1.15 billion between January and June, followed by Rio de Janeiro with $575 million, and Minas Gerais with $431 million. The data are based on FOB values, which do not include international shipping.

By 2025, airplanes produced by Embraer in the Paraíba Valley will be the main product exported from São Paulo to the United States. Fruit juices and engineering equipment follow. After Trump's announcement, orange juice exporters said the surcharge would cause the sector to collapse.

In Rio, the top-selling product for the U.S. is crude oil. Semi-finished iron and steel products and fuel oils are also among the top exports in the state of Rio de Janeiro.

In Minas Gerais, coffee machinery, pork, and electricity are the main exported goods.

This year, Brazilian manufacturing exports to the United States increased by 3.2%. Agricultural sector sales to the country also grew by 1.3%. Of the top ten products exported to the United States, six increased in value, including unroasted coffee, semi-finished iron and steel, and aircraft. According to the AmCham Brasil report, industrial exports to the United States reached a record $16 billion this year. The country is the main destination for industrial exports, ahead of Mercosur (US$11.5 billion), the European Union (US$10.8 billion), and China (US$9.7 billion).

This week, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas acknowledged the negative impact of the measure. The state would be the most affected if the surcharge went into effect in August. Last Friday, July 11, Tarcísio met with the US ambassador to discuss the impact of the tariff on the country's economy.