BMV closes with gains and shows strength in the face of uncertainty

In a sign of strength and apparent decoupling from economic fears, the Mexican Stock Exchange ( BMV ) closed Tuesday's trading session with solid gains, driven by the strong performance of its largest-cap companies.

Despite an uncertain national and international environment, the Mexican capital market showed resilience. The Mexican Stock Exchange's main indicator, the S&P/BMV IPC, closed the July 1 session with a 0.92% gain, reaching 58,346.72 points.

This positive performance contrasts with growing analyst warnings about a possible economic slowdown in Mexico, the uncertainty generated by internal reforms, and persistent trade threats from the United States.

Optimism wasn't limited to the main index. Other BMV indicators also registered favorable performance, suggesting broad-based positive sentiment in the market:

• S&P/BMV IPC LargeCap: The index that groups the largest capitalization companies (the largest in the market) was one of the leaders, with a gain of 1.21%.
• S&P/BMV INMEX: This index, which measures the performance of the most liquid stocks, also rose 0.96%.
• Trading volume: More than 233 million shares were traded, indicating active investor participation.

With this result, the S&P/BMV IPC is 18.09% above its lowest level recorded this year, although it remains 1.57% below its annual high, reflecting a robust recovery with room to grow.

The stock market's strong performance poses an interesting paradox. While financial markets are optimistic, indicators of the "real economy" paint a more somber picture. Recent reports indicate that the nearshoring opportunity is cooling due to legal uncertainty and insecurity, and that the confidence of manufacturing companies has declined.

This apparent disconnect could be explained by several factors:

• Strength of large companies: Companies listed on the BMV are usually the largest and most established in the country, with strong exposure to international markets, which partially insulates them from domestic problems.
• Long-term investors: Markets may be pricing in current political risks, betting that Mexico's potential will prevail over the long term.
• Seeking Yield: In a global environment of potentially low interest rates, emerging markets like Mexico can be attractive to investors seeking higher yields.

Although the daily gain is positive news for investors, the divergence between stock market sentiment and macroeconomic indicators will be a key trend to monitor in the coming months to determine the true health of the Mexican economy.