Michoacán poll: Morena leads in the race for governor; Raúl Morón leads in the internal poll

The race for the governorship of Michoacán is beginning to take shape, and according to the most recent MetricsMX survey, the Morena–PVEM–PT alliance has a lead heading into the 2026 state elections. If the elections were held today, this coalition would obtain 39.9% of the voting intention , almost tripling its closest competitor.

In second place is the PAN with 12.2% , closely followed by Movimiento Ciudadano with 11.1% , suggesting a close battle between the two forces for the opposition vote. The PRI , which once dominated the state, remains in fourth place with 8.9% , confirming its decline in the state. Additionally, 7.2% would vote for an independent candidate, 11.0% for "another party," and 9.7% have yet to decide .

These numbers confirm that Morena maintains electoral control in Michoacán, while the opposition remains fragmented and without a dominant figure to challenge the state's leadership.

Within Morena, the internal competition seems defined from now on: Raúl Morón leads the preferences as a possible candidate for governor with 46.1% , well above Fabiola Alanís (30.3%) and Celeste Ascencio (23.6%) .

Morón, the former mayor of Morelia and a longtime leader of the Obrador party in the state, maintains an active territorial structure and a high level of knowledge, which explains his dominant position. Alanís and Ascencio, although competitive, would have to recover more than 15 points to challenge him for the Morena nomination.

On the opposition side, the poll reveals a completely different picture: there is no clear leadership . Among the possible candidates:

PAN member Alfonso Martínez appears to be in the lead, but with a narrow advantage within a divided opposition. The Citizens' Movement is seriously competing with two strong candidates, while the PRI falls back to third and fifth place within its own bloc. Furthermore, Marko Cortés, the PAN's national leader , is failing to gain traction in his own state.

The survey suggests that:

• Morena is the favorite in Michoacán, but cannot be complacent , as 30% of the electorate is still available, including undecided voters, independents, and other parties.

• Raúl Morón is today the most competitive candidate in the state.

• The opposition would need a PAN–PRI–MC alliance to compete; divided, it has virtually no chance of recovery.

• The anti-Morena vote is dispersed and has no narrative or candidacy to capitalize on it for now .

Telephone survey with a robot , conducted on October 17 and 18, 2025, with 1,200 adults residing in Michoacán .

Questions were sent via pre-recorded message; the interviewee responded using the telephone keypad.

Probabilistic sampling of landlines and cell phones in the state.

Data adjusted for gender and age based on the INE nominal list (October 1, 2025) . Margin of error ±2.83% , confidence level 95% , rejection rate 97% .