China's rise in science: Europe's answer sought

"Scientia potestas est – Knowledge is power!" This phrase was coined by the English philosopher Francis Bacon at the end of the 16th century, when England was among the world's leading powers in both science and politics. Bacon wanted to make his contemporaries aware of the strategic value of knowledge – a guiding principle that remains valid to this day.

The global research landscape is currently facing a turning point: According to a new study published in the journal "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences" (PNAS), Chinese scientists already assumed the leading role in almost half of all collaborations with US colleagues in 2023. This historic figure underscores Beijing's rapid growth in influence. China is now setting the research agenda in key international areas.

China's leadership role: Change of power at the top according to new criteria

Not only classic indicators like the prestigious but somewhat outdated Nobel Prizes or mere publication figures reflect true scientific power. China's rise is now measured by other criteria. An analysis of approximately six million research papers shows that 45 percent of leading positions in US-Chinese collaborative studies were held by Chinese researchers in 2023 – compared to 30 percent in 2010. If this trend continues, China will achieve parity with the US in leading roles in strategic fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor research, and materials science by 2027/28.

China also leads in scientific publications. According to the latest G20 Research and Innovation Report, almost 900,000 scientific publications originate from China, a threefold increase compared to 2015. In theNature Index, which evaluates the 150 most important medical and scientific journals , China has long since overtaken the USA. Seven of the top ten institutions whose publications in scientific journals are assessed by the Nature Index are Chinese.

The situation is not very flattering for the West with its approximately 20,000 scientific institutions: US university Harvard still leads the Nature ranking, places 2 to 9 are exclusively occupied by Chinese universities , and the US Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) lands in 10th place.

Strategy, investment, networks: Why China is rapidly catching up in research

China has invested heavily in science, making it a cornerstone of its development strategy. The country has increasingly opened its research to international collaborations and actively organizes these partnerships . Chinese students and researchers are encouraged to work globally, creating a network for enhanced international cooperation.

Particularly in technology sectors – and also through education exports via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an infrastructure and development project – billions are being invested to attract talent to China and forge global connections. According to the PNAS study, science diplomacy is being used strategically as a tool.

Centralized control vs. creativity: Strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese system

Speed, strategic investments, and centrally controlled networks are China's strengths. Engineering, electronics, materials science, physics, and chemistry deliver outstanding results and high citation rates.

However, strict central control by institutions does not only have advantages. China lacks groundbreaking innovations in numerous research areas, as well as the necessary independence of science. Success can be controlled, but creativity cannot. In this respect, the USA, with its decentralized, business-driven innovation culture, still has a significant advantage over the Chinese and Europeans.

Furthermore, times are becoming tougher for international research cooperation. The US and Europe see China as a strategic rival, and the geopolitical and economic upheavals of recent months are mutually detrimental.

Battle for AI supremacy: China and the USA in a race

The US still holds the lead in artificial intelligence (AI) , but China is rapidly catching up. The Deepseek language model demonstrates how quickly and cheaply Chinese technologies can reach the market. Harvard remains a driver of innovation in this field, but Chinese academies are rapidly gaining ground.

Today, China plays a key role in AI patent applications. The USA is still keeping up relatively well, but even the best European institutions often lag far behind in global comparisons .

The crisis of Western systems: Why are the USA and EU faltering?

China's rise coincides with a period of weakness in the US and Europe. The American research landscape is suffering from political turmoil , budget cuts, and the exodus of top talent. US President Donald Trump's austerity measures and the open confrontation between the two superpowers are leading to a noticeable decline in joint projects and a shift of talent toward China.

While Europe may benefit from the bright minds of the US and other parts of the world who are no longer truly welcome in the United States, Europe's need to catch up in many scientific fields is enormous, and the major breakthrough often fails due to national sensitivities or restrictions – both within the European Union and in the rest of Europe.

Global impact: China's rise is changing the balance of power

China's virtually unstoppable rise is changing the global economic and geopolitical order: China is organizing parts of the international research agenda, while Europe is increasingly falling behind in the race for future technologies.

One possibility would be targeted cooperation with Chinese teams to at least maintain some competitiveness. It remains to be seen how the Chinese system will cope with increasing fragmentation. the scientific landscape and circumvent geopolitical tensions.

Europe's opportunity in research: Diversity is not a weakness

A genuine alternative to progressive fragmentation It would be the determined building of a European force beyond national interests. Europe's diversity – languages, cultures, traditions – is not a weakness. Innovation can arise from this diversity, something monolithic countries cannot offer.

"Knowledge is power" – now is the moment to harness our own diversity as an engine of innovation. The monitoring report on the European Research Area (ERA) also emphasizes that if Europe cooperates strategically and pools its resources, it can become a scientific powerhouse capable of competing on equal terms with China and the USA.