Customs dispute: EU demands clear guarantees from the US – warning against one-sided deal

Will a major tariff agreement still prevent the reintroduction of 20 percent US tariffs on all EU products on Wednesday, Mr. Lange?

It's now clear that a comprehensive trade agreement is simply not feasible in such a short time. Only a framework with some basic agreements between the US and the EU is realistic. After that, further negotiations would have to be held over the details. The crucial question is: Will the US continue to pause the suspended 20 percent tariffs? If the talks drag on for months, we're talking about billions of euros in tariffs. In my view, they must be reduced or suspended entirely during the negotiations. After all, a political agreement in principle has long been in place.

It is said that Trump prefers a symbolic solution with a few products that he can sell as a major success, rather than a detailed agreement.

That's true, but the EU Commission has been negotiating intensively with the US on details: for example, what exactly "sustainable steel" means, or when US products with Chinese components are to be classified as "Made in China" and when as "Made in the USA" – and which tariff rate applies in those cases. So far, the US has only concluded two tariff agreements, with Great Britain and Vietnam, and both are merely frameworks. And even then, it's unclear what will happen to Chinese companies that produce in Vietnam, for example.

US President Donald Trump speaks in April during an event announcing new tariffs in the White House Rose Garden. Trump shows which countries will pay which tariffs.

Source: Mark Schiefelbein/AP/dpa

Isn't there a risk that a quick deal, as favored by the German government, could leave the US as the sole winner?

That's exactly what happened with the UK and Vietnam: Both wanted quick results, and the US ultimately emerged as the big winner. Clearly, a quick result was more important to them. But Trump can't simply repeat that with the EU. If tariffs are changed, the European Parliament must approve it, and we've made it clear to the EU Commission that we will not agree to a unilateral agreement with the US. A deal must be in both sides' interests, otherwise there won't be one.

The US has submitted a wish list: They want to sell more cars to us, as well as their infamous hormone-treated meat and chlorine-treated chicken. Are these acceptable concessions?

We certainly won't change our laws for a deal with Trump. The EU has high food safety standards, and these also apply to the US if it wants to do business with us. Hormone-treated beef remains taboo, but the US can already sell high-quality meat to us. US companies only use half of the duty-free import quota – so such demands are purely symbolic. With cars, we could talk about mutual recognition of crash tests and tariff reductions. Then the cars would be somewhat cheaper, but not necessarily more popular. Who in Germany would buy a Ford pickup truck instead of a VW Golf?

There are already tariffs of 10 percent on all goods from the EU. Could these become permanent?

Yes, I am convinced: Trump wants to establish a tariff rate of 10 percent as the new normal for the EU – and for large parts of the world. And that's just the basis. On top of that come the tariffs that are individually negotiated or spontaneously imposed. The US government urgently needs the tariff revenue, because Trump is clearly using it as play money for his expensive election gifts. Last year, the US collected €7 billion from tariffs on EU products. If the tariffs remain at "only" 10 percent, Trump is likely to collect around €100 billion this year. So, we're talking about gigantic sums, and the US side will do everything in its power to maintain this revenue.

Many companies, above all, want a quick end to the tariff dispute so they can start planning again. So, is a quick end better than a never-ending horror?

I'm counting on us reaching a final solution to the tariff dispute by Wednesday. This is crucial for investment decisions and longer-term trade relations. The EU is therefore prepared to go a long way towards making concessions to the US, even if these are de facto extortionate demands. We finally want clarity and stability and are prepared to compromise to achieve this. But one thing is clear: if there is a deal, further US demands must stop. There are currently seven investigations underway in the US into possible new tariffs, for example on European pharmaceutical products. These must be stopped. We cannot allow ourselves to reach an agreement today and then, two weeks later, Trump suddenly announces 30 percent tariffs on medicines. We need a binding commitment: the tariff dispute with the EU is finally off the table.

And will Trump give this promise to the Europeans?

Quite frankly, I have serious doubts that a deal will completely eliminate uncertainty for businesses. Trump always reserves the right to back out of the gate or come up with new demands. But it would still be a clear first step, and one that's long overdue.