Kashmir conflict | New twists in the spiral of escalation

When members of a previously little-known terrorist group murdered 26 tourists in the Indian part of Kashmir on April 22, it was clear that the incident would have consequences. However, just two weeks ago, hardly anyone could have seriously imagined that an open new war between the two nuclear-armed powers, India and Pakistan, was imminent.

After two phases of airstrikes, appeals from various quarters to the governments in Delhi and Islamabad to curb the escalation are now more urgent than ever. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragchi has already attempted to mediate, and even US President Trump felt compelled to issue a statement of grave concern, although his Vice President JD Vance ruled out direct intervention. None of this has helped so far, nor have new appeals from the UN.

Fear of attacks on both sides

All schools in the Pakistani province of Punjab and the capital Islamabad were recently closed for at least two days, including Saturday. Concerns about renewed Indian airstrikes that could hit civilian targets are too great. Conversely, disaster preparedness drills were conducted not only in the Indian capital to be prepared for Pakistani attacks.

Along the Line of Control (LoC), which has served as a ceasefire line separating the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir from the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir for decades , residents of numerous border villages were evacuated. Other people left their homes more or less voluntarily out of concern for their own safety. But fear is also growing along the international border between the two nuclear-armed powers.

India speaks of preemptive strike against Pakistan

India had thwarted an allegedly planned major Pakistani attack with a preemptive strike , was the justification given in Delhi on Thursday for the second stage of "Operation Sindoor," named in Hindi after a vermillion dye. The primary targets this time were apparently Pakistani air defense positions further inland; one such facility on the outskirts of the country's second-largest city, Lahore, was allegedly hit hard.

Such details in the still limited military exchange of the past few days are difficult to independently verify quickly. Just like the claim by Pakistani army spokesman Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry that the functioning air defense units shot down 12, 25, or even 29 Indian drones.

Rumors about foreign weapons

Conversely, there is talk in India that the remains of an enemy missile were found near a village outside the city of Amritsar in Punjab, and that at least one Pakistani fighter jet was shot down. While the drones were an Israeli Harop product, produced by a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), reports circulating in the meantime suggested that the downed fighter jet was a Chinese model, a claim later denied. Such speculation demonstrates the unreliability of some information and the keen interest of certain circles on both sides in exploiting certain aspects for propaganda purposes.

What can one believe when agitators are raising their voices ever louder, and even more moderate forces are so far as to openly threaten "retaliation"? Among them is Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who held back his own statements when, in the days before, cabinet members such as India's Railway Minister had already openly threatened the possible use of the 130 nuclear warheads, and former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto, head of the right-wing social democratic Pakistan People's Party (PPP), had also brought out equally heavy artillery. Shehbaz was probably still hearing his older brother Nawaz's warning: The three-time former prime minister had already clearly advised the younger brother on April 26th against openly confronting the larger neighbor.

India views its airstrikes as a legitimate response to the massacre in the idyllic resort of Pahalgam, whose name has since spread around the world, emphasized Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Nine training camps of three radical Islamic groups across the LoC and directly on Pakistani soil were destroyed, and 100 terrorists were killed, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said Thursday at an all-party meeting to brief the political elite, including the opposition, on the success of "Operation Sindoor."

Pakistan's leadership reported at least 31 civilian casualties so far. India repelled counterattacks on Friday night.